Friday, November 16, 2007

November Expiration Friday & Holiday Effects

The Cumulative Tick slope turned positive in the mid-morning as the Dow bounced off of S1. Looks like we may retest the positive VWAPs around here though. Also, the often leading Semis, Transports and Financials are showing relative weakness. On the other hand, once again, in spite of the initial morning weakness, I have had ZERO stock pullback buys today. But, expiration days can be volatile, as you well know, and the day is young.

Next Monday marks the official beginning of the bullish season going into the new year. Taking that trade with the SPY has been positive in 9 of the last ten years (with only a small draw in 2003). QQQQ can be quite a bit dicier, albeit with higher aggregate returns. There is also often a positive Holiday effect that you may want to investigate going into the shortened Thanksgiving trading week. Just remember that with recent sentiment so negative, lighter volume could cut both ways.

That VWAP trade report may have to wait until next week, as I'm traveling this afternoon right after the close.


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