Thursday, January 10, 2008

01.10.08 - All Eyes on Big Ben

In my non-economist's opinion, we are or will soon be in recession. The market is understandably flat to mixed after the retail news and ahead of Chairman Bernanke's speech in an hour or so. I don't know what he will say, or how much it will matter (of course it could matter dramatically according to content). I do know it was encouraging that equities could move off of their morning lows.



11:55AM CST UPDATE: Bernanke's written comments, the Fed "will take substantive action as necessary." Note that the first reaction to sell the break above the five-day simple moving average was contained at the daily VWAP. Tick and A-D are picking up strongly. If I get a chance later today, I will update the tables in the post below to include the percentage of wins per cell.

12:20PM CST UPDATE: Man, you can hear his voice wavering... Think there is a bit of pressure on this guy? I fixed the date on the title of the post, thanks. CNBC has got to lose that swoosh sound every fifteen seconds. What's up with that?

12:35PM CST UPDATE: Not sure that was enough. The post euphoria depression needs to be bought here to hold trend. By the same token, I think you'd have to be nuts to go short here -- if nothing else, that was "put" language.

1:20PM CST UPDATE: We keep trying to move through that 5-day MA. Eventualy we will with so many attempts, but meanwhile moving down the slope. Will it become downside support on one of these breaks? Daily Fibonacci view:

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