Friday, January 11, 2008

01.11.08 - Cumulative Tick Divergence

Interestingly, the cumulative tick on the SPY keeps tracking higher versus its twenty-day average. Maybe more of a sign of just how bad it has been recently. Tempting to gear up on this, but I'd look for more evidence first, as prescient as it may be. Financials seem to be propping up the SPY (reporting next week, by the way). Then there is always the worry of the possibility of an end-of-day Friday throw-away. If we do see one, I'd likely buy it for a trade.

1:10PM CST UPDATE: As promised, the "How Shall We Bounce" article has been updated to include the percentage of postive outcomes in subsequent five-day periods. Ugly out there. Tick continues to look healthy, unlike price action. Interestingly, A-D line is also fairly flat. Large caps pulling us down? Gotta be.

1:45PM CST UPDATE: I'm not the first one to say it, but it does indeed look like last year's winners are being sold with proceeds reinvested into bonds. With rates as low as they are and inflation stats coming out next week, that just doesn't strike me as very smart, at least in terms of a "safety play." Cumulative Tick still roaring ahead of price. Again, this means that buyers are taking the ask, on balance.

Blog(s) to Read:

Kirk Report ~ Arms Index Bullish


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