Friday, January 4, 2008

Market Rewind S&P 2008 Poll Results

Here on caucus day and in response to the Market Rewind reader who asked what I planned to do with the reader "S&P500 2008 Prediction" poll, here is a summary of those results as compared to the index's actual historical results over the last 80 years.

Bear in mind that the poll was very small, totaling only 23 responses. Nonetheless, I am told by said reader that it is a fairly "typical result." Whether this is true or not, it is my hope that this information will help frame and bound your personal expectations for 2008 and the years ahead:

Regarding the market's compound average total return of 9.7% over the period, it bears repeating that this particular statistic swings dramatically depending which year is selected as the starting point for the calculation.

Comparing the poll to historic results, I noticed that the modal poll response of +0.0% to +7.5% was below the index's compound average result with the expected returns distribution for 2008 also dramatically skewed below the historic distribution, indicating an overall negative view on the year. Granted, it's hard to see that view as unfounded on a day like today!

1 comment:

Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

"Said reader" is none other than long time blogger Bill Rempel. His blogs may be found at: