Friday, February 22, 2008

02.22.08 - New Day More of the...

Today looks just just like yesterday. I would'nt look for a "bottom" just yet, cumulative tick is just too negative... maybe if we tank into the close I'll think of a long hold over the weekend. Notice how today's peaks and troughs align nicely with relative volume spikes (the thin dotted green/ red line). This is often the case and may be helpful to you day traders out there.

I took off hedges on my pull back strategy too soon, but so far the positions seem to be holding their own. In addition, we have very few new buys today. This may be considered bullish as the most beat up stocks are holding up inspite of the index declines.

Here are next week's calendars:

o Economic
o Earnings

Blogs to read:

o Quantifiable Edges
o Vix & More
o TraderFeed
o AlphaTrends - PLEASE click and soak in. I agree with Brian on this one.

PM UPDATE: As a side note, the Intermarket Sentiment model went long a couple days ago. I have been reluctant to take it in this flat environment with no associated major sell off. May be time to start thinking about it though...

2:55PM CST UPDATE: Amazing, and how was that for timing! I have written before about the impact this type of news could have... if this comes to pass, this would spell resolution to this tightening range to the upside:

A CNBC commentator noted that a bailout plan for bond insurer Ambac (ABK 10.01, +0.78) could be announced as early as Monday or Tuesday next week. The report has given way to refreshed strength in regional banks (+1.0%) and multi-line insurance (+1.0%).

(EDIT) Having learned more about this "news break," this is still a speculative news play that could easily fail! How would you like to be the reporter that caused this to occur if it fails... and fundamentally it isn't so clear to me the import of the news. Somebody somewhere still bears risk even IF the deal goes through!
Enjoy your weekend!


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