Friday, March 28, 2008

03.28.08 - MA Sandwich

There is a slight downward drift and resistance at the falling VWAP on the day inspite of the postive A-D line and tick action. Right now there is significant volume spike occuring, we'll see whether that is buying or selling shortly. Notice above how the SPY is sandwiched between the falling 50-day and flattened 20-day moving averages.

1:35PM CST UPDATE: It has been lower lows and lower highs all darn day with little impulse to get out of trades. Cumulative tick has finally gone into the red. We will see if S1 holds at this point. Volume is incredibly low. Definite case of the Friday blues. Will we see a quarter/month-end reversal?

3:45PM CST UPDATE: I found today a bit disquieting for some reason. Unlike yesterday, it was a very tight rope, almost exclusively down. Makes me wonder about Monday. Historically, trading the end-of-month/quarter has a positive expectancy, but I was interested to hear one CNBC commentator (was it Art Cashion?), make an argument for a "Window Breaking" instead of "Dressing" whereby hedgies will load up on their shorts to push them down for extra gain. I'm not so sure... I'd think the greater tendency would be to lock gains as we are now close to the bottom of the recent range. We will see. Interesting blogs to read:

o Vix & More
o Quantifiable Edges
o Short-Term Trading

MONDAY UPDATE: Quantifiable Edges says the end-of-quarter markup expectancy is slim at best.

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