Thursday, May 29, 2008

05.29.08 - Oil: Less Supply = Lower Price?


Who knew... mostly I'm ticked that my longs got shook out by the dip when oil first reacted to the supply reduction news. Impressive follow through buying strength going into the end of the month. Cumulative Tick is looking very good, but keep a close eye on it. I've hedged a bit for my long-term longs... but I wouldn't get in front of this with a true short until the tick shows signs of rolling over.

IF that happens as we bump into the convergence of the downward sloping ten- and twenty-day moving averages plus the daily R2 (about SPY $140.50), that may provide enough resistance to set up a quick short trade. WAIT FOR IT -- We'll see.

1:20PM CST UPDATE: We've hit resistance... but I don't know, could just as easily see a second leg up into the close.

2:40PM CST UPDATE: What do you know, covering at the VWAP.

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