Thursday, June 26, 2008

06.26.08 - Whoopsy Daisy

Ouch. I started buying when Tick didn't show the same weakness exhibited by price. Several items in the mix today, from analyst downgrades, softened tech outlooks, and an oil spike -- but really it seems there just aren't any buyers out there. Certainly a stronger than usual post-fed hang-over. Could be a good trade, but be careful... next stop down isn't pretty and I don't like to see these multiple tests of the recent lows.

10:35AM PST UPDATE: It's difficult to use technical analysis to pick the next level of potential support here. We could be close as we are near the level of non-extreme bottoms from earlier this year and we've already had a sustained down leg with extremely weak reversals, if they even qualify. However, should we break down further, we are looking a a fairly large potential range lower of SPY $126-128. Not nice to think about - but a distinct possibility. Cumulative tick finally definitively broke down; I won't take further risk until reassessing near the close. May be an overnight trade and/or longer-term swing opportunity in there. Quad-Q's are down 3.5% as I post this.

12:30PM PST UPDATE: Has anyone noticed the VIX is relatively low at 23.66? Maybe everyone is already hedged? Maria Bartoloma just noted how we should take solice in the low volume today. My studies indicate the exact opposite! More on this later.


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