Monday, August 11, 2008

08.11.08 - Equity In-Flows

Continued flows into equities out of commodities and bonds. The ten-year note yield is once again just under 4 points. Adjusted Tick is very strong. Keep an eye out though, we are now at the top of the recent trend channel.

Yahoo! Excerpt:

"Retail gasoline prices fell for the 25th day in a row, a survey of gas station credit card swipes showed Monday. The national average price for a gallon of regular gas fell to $3.81 from $3.818 a gallon the previous day, motorist group AAA said. Prices though remain more than $1 above year-ago levels."

10:40AM PST (Edit: Obviously had time messed up here) UPDATE: It's 1:40EST -- huge rally day -- where is the volume? I estimate closing SPY volume under 200K shares. Typical daily volume has been 230K shares. Obviously lots of short-covering; where are the institutions?

o Predicting End-of-Day Volume

11:40AM PST: The SPY is sitting right on its rising VWAP. Not clear if we will break or bounce. On a daily basis, we went overbought earlier with an RSI of 84 and now oil is bouncing back. Tick and AD may be rolling over, but it's not clear yet whether or not they'll trend. Watch that VWAP, oil and treasuries.

12:50PM PST: Volume picked back up to average on the pullback. Not a terrific candlestick. Anyone else getting sick of the oil correlation talk? Maybe I'll look more into that. On a daily basis, the correlation is less than you'd think from all the talking heads (take a look at the chart in the post below).

Quotation of the Day:

"This could be a prolonged and bloody conflict with an unpredictable end," said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst in Moscow. (Bloomberg)

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