Thursday, September 11, 2008

09.11.08 - Nice Gap Fill, Watch the...


...SPY for potential resistance as it reaches the declining 5-day moving average ($124.50). It is common for gaps down like this to fill in bear markets when they can hold the first hour (add: unlike the excessive gap up from several days ago -- although it most certainly did in that case).

However, strongly negative tick kept me from fully participating in this nice reversal fade. Slope is now up, though, with AD line and VIX confirmation.

Also, a prayer for our fallen countrymen on this 911 anniversary day, and for those still fighting - rightly or wrongly - overseas. That's not a political comment, just recognition of how charged this issue is.

10:25AM PST UPDATE: Hope you saw the reversal if you were long. As we now test the VWAP, this is a note that the tick looks really bad. Be careful.

10:40AM PST UPDATE: Seems bounce took, now see if we can clear Pivot resistance. [Add: I'm not betting on it... and I'd have been wrong... still going... again keep eye on 5-day MA.]

CLOSING UPDATE: Explosive close to the upside. Note that the downtrend lines off of the highs from the 2nd through the 8th are still in place, however.

Beyond the LEH news for tomorrow, I'd say there is a good chance the PPI and Retail Sales numbers come in positively based on oil's decline... perhaps another reason for the runup. Tomorrow's action will be curious and perhaps more telling than today.

Never Investment Advice

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