Monday, September 15, 2008

09.15.08 - VWAP Holding under Tick Pressure

VIX beat 30 at the open. Nothing magic about that number gang, but still a big stretch from Friday. However, that level has been so popularized, maybe it's helping, who knows.

So far that Thursday opening low is proving strong support, as is the VWAP on an intraday basis. But be careful, adjusted tick is very, very weak, meaning traders are taking the bid more than typical. Rumor city out there.

Here is a link to today's earlier comments, and Sunday's as well for posterity's sake. Amazing about oil... has to be more unwinding happening as Ike gets little news play.

Paulson coming out with a statement soon. Hard to know how Fed speculation will play versus the risk of the GS report tomorrow. I'd guess it plays positively -- with commodities down so much and unemployment barreling higher, if not now (more cuts), then when?

10:50AM PST: Mr. Paulson, come on, the problem is not the "housing correction." It was 30 to 40 times leverage on top of bad lending practices that artificially stimulated home prices and subsequently magnified 3% portfolio losses into 99% equity declines. LEH is now trading at $0.19/share. [add:] Now the credit rating agencies show up late to the game only to further jeopardize the banks (by raising their borrowing costs) when they can (literally) afford to deal with it the least.

11:45AM PST: Ah, obviously the title of this post became defunct about an hour ago. I'd like to see us close at least a touch lower than the open. It's just that moves like off of the Thursday opening lows [seem to] not hold past the first hour on the subsequent day. I'd like to see a study on that -- don't have one -- strictly observation.

12:10PM PST: VIX:VXN in capitulation territory (1.1+). However, other indicators have yet to catch up to my satisfaction. We'll just have to be on watch throughout the week.

12:15PM PST: Meredith Whitney calls out Citi, Wachovia and Washington Mutual. Who are they going to sell their assets to [add:] and over what period of time? (IYR -6.24%) "I don't understand why the equity markets are doing so well today." And what about job loss impact on regional economies? Nice secondary effect thinking.

12:25PM PST: With enough foresight I could have named today's post, "VIX Smiling, Price Frowning."

1:00PM PST: Pierced SPX 1,200 into the closing bell. New closing lows on the year.

7:15PM PST: SPX is entering "the zone" (1,150 to 1,175), Dec. ES down after hours another 60 basis points to 1,176. The spring will be coiling at this point -- wait for it.


Anonymous said...


I guess today was no where to run and no where to hide pm stocks took a unexpected beating today also...


Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

Mac from Chicago?

Anonymous said...

Morning Jeff

No, not Chicago,,L.A. (no snow)
other than that though,,,markets the same,,,heh