Monday, September 22, 2008

09.22.08 - Adjusted Tick Wavering

As our politicians act like, well, politicians -- the slope of the Adjusted Tick has been wavering between positive and negative even while it remains clearly negative on an absolute basis, as is the daily VWAP. Meanwhile, the SPY has fallen back to its declining ten-day moving average.

Honestly, I would have been more concerned if we had moved up another 1%-plus. For now this action is healthy and desirable. However, oil is up nearly +6.3% (USO) and Gold is up some +3.6% (GLD) on dollar weakness, no doubt, and the XLE is the big session winner (+0.90%).

10:40AM PST: Crude trading halted!

12:35PM PST: Well, that "healthy" sheen to the pull-back has become quite an oil-slick. SPY is at S1 ($121.15) -- may be worth a try on a long scalp trade, but probably less risk to wait until the end of the day at this point. XLF is down -7.8% even under the short ban; go figure Chris Cox...? Still figuring?

12:55PM PST: I thought there would be a little more noise to play with today (especially in the NDX); it was pretty much a one-way trade. SPY is resting on the 5-day moving average. That MA line has flattened, maybe even turning up a bit, which is somewhat bullish inspite of today's action. It remains a question, of course, whether we will bounce here (inverted H&S) or form a W-type bottom where we retest or even break the Thursday low. News flow will be tremendously key here... we'll see if our "lawmakers" get the hint.

o ETF Guide - Survivorship Bias (...and you thought you weren't a momentum trader...)
o Reuters - Buybacks (+ Our Stock is Cheap; - No Investment Opportunities Here)

Never Investment Advice

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