Wednesday, September 24, 2008

09.24.08 - Will S1 Hold?

Our legislators undoubtedly have a very serious fiduciary duty to fulfill, but boy is this thing dragging. They need to learn how to power negotiate. Meet in a moderated forum, ask questions and articulate positions through a selected member, go back to committee with a set time schedule and a battery of experts available in real-time, repeat no more than a handful of times with a deadline for the overall solution.

Most indicators are flat to slightly negative. So far S1 is holding. We are due a bounce up to SPY $122+, but we are really stuck in a quagmire here on a downward wedge and it nonetheless seems price action could break either way. No buyers. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic. We'll see.

9:45AM PST: Notice that VIX is falling along with price, could indeed be a bullish falling wedge... meanwhile Adjusted Tick keeps moving down and look at the treasury spreads. Mixed signals for sure.

Commentary: Executive Compensation Limits -- now MBAs can know what it has felt like to be an MD during the last decade-and-a-half. What a joke. I like how the obviously war-focused republican presidential administration is taking the heat for this while the democrat-dominated congress conveniently ignores its oversight role. What have they been focused on for the last four years? Does anyone care?

Dear "Loyal Mentor" -- Don't confuse my commentary about the political process, such that it is, with party commentary! Don't get me started down that road!

Reading:

o Quant Edges - "Pullback has given back gains faster than any other..."

Never Investment Advice

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello Jeff,,

This is interesting in that my three boys (high School) are nagging me every day with shots like,,the horses are out of the barn,,now your griping about the door needing fixed, shouldnt it been maintained all along???

To which i have little to say...

Mac

Anonymous said...

Hi Jeff,

You know how sometimes you get a feeling about something, Well the hearing is not leaving the market with something to build on i'm expecting a dump,,just to make a point,,if you will. now i doubt that will make a difference but i'm just stuck with the feeling its coming..

Mac

Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

Tough call Mac. I have that same rotten stinking feeling... statistically odds are building for a bounce again, but "odds" have been failing consistently for some time now. It's a new world, and not a very pretty one. Not very many people seem to get it.