Friday, September 26, 2008

09.26.08 - Nasdaq Lags Badly

Fears on RIMM customer acquisition costs rising has the Quad-Qs badly lagging the recovery off of the morning lows (QQQQ -2.2% vs. SPY -1.3%). Price has been relatively stable (though it's starting to roll), all things considered, but the VIX is rising, and the AD line and adjusted tick are negative, so be careful playing the fade trade.

Political hay sure is flying. Economic slow-down aside, for now it seems no one wants to be too short ahead of the weekend and a potential plan agreement.

Intrade Bailout Contract Odds

10:30AM PST: Finding resistance at the pivot (SPY) and five day ma's (QQQQ), respectively. QQQQ's in particular are having trouble getting motivated, maybe more of an underlying economy message to traders?

Ted Spread

Reading: I had thought of posting this very same concept and got too busy. It's too expensive to make it worthwhile, but here it is anyway by Bill Luby -- good work Bill. And here is a link to the SPY composition. Interestingly, the IWM has greater raw financial services exposure. Anyhow, there are many ways to skin that cat "short" of an outright ban on all shorting.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Morning Jeff,,

I would bet you are looking for a entry into C, for a monday,,,pass trade,,Banks seem to be the apple of everyones eyes now,,hard to think of it...

Mac

Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

Not enough of a pullback in Citi for me to consider, though this am would not have been bad. I have a small position in IAT to reduce company specific risk on that idea though. And good relative strength in spite of all the vol.

Best, J