Tuesday, October 14, 2008

10.14.08 - Gap Filled

A bit of profit taking in the morning caused the gap higher to be filled. However, SPY pricing was able to hold near the pivot of $99.70. Currently, there are mixed signals on the day. On one hand, adjusted tick remains strong, while on the other, the AD line has tapered off.

I suspect traders may become distrustful of any move too near or over the daily VWAP. As mentioned in the past, there will be a good deal of inventory overhead inspite of the initial welcome reception of the added significant government interventions this week.

10:25AM PST: We are consolidating within a ten point SPX range. A bit maddening because directional indicators are parting ways and oscillators can't seem to lock onto a cycle. Tried to get short (again) and got shook out too soon. I'll stay out for now.

11:05AM PST: Should have held that short! Slope of Tick, AD and Trin are now all aligned to the downside (as of about ten minutes ago). I did keep my hedges. Then again too, the only thing worse than second guessing yourself... is getting run over in this fast moving and wide ranging market!

If you haven't been over to TraderFeed lately, there are a couple recent articles that are especially good.

11:55AM PST: There is no 'predicting' support these days for bet the farm positions, but traders will no doubt be looking to S1 and the 5-Day Mas for strong support below (SPY $96.00/ $94.50).


o CXO Advisory - Advisor Excuses
o Yahoo! - Intel Beats
o Quant. Edges - Volume Clues Point Down

I'd say odds are for more negativity tomorrow. Then more positive again in the short-intermediate term. Will reassess at the open though -- I did think it was fairly impressive that INTC was able to increase sales/ EPS to record levels in spite of their "cloudy forecast." To 'Mac's' point (see comments), it's one day at a time every day here.

Wed. Open: I'll be looking for potential buy opportunities near Monday's lows.

Never Investment Advice


Anonymous said...

Hello there Jeff,,,

Well,, seems we are at a decision point again,,,Wed. open will carry a great meaning,, if we dont open higher,, i'm thinkin the bulls are headed back to their foxholes...


Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

Maybe best to not hold anything except for core positions for those who are concerned.

Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

I had meant to say 'overnight'.

Anonymous said...

Morning Jeff,,

And it came to pass,,happy times are not forever,, the battered bull is sent limping from the stage,, the great trading god has determined that hedgies will expire prior to the holidays..