Wednesday, October 15, 2008
S1 is holding so far, but all indicators show the potential for a downside break. Honestly, could go either way so I'd manage size with stops and a preference for the short side/ hedging.
Those interested in learning more about volatility events may consider the exceptionally well written book below, "Market Models," by Carol Alexander. Requires a willingness to work through some higher level math. Includes Excel files with helpful examples.
9:55AM PST: Some signs of stabilization, but I'd wait for a definitive VWAP break, then set a stop just below. Right now VWAP continues to be resistance.
10:50AM PST: Almost. Wait for it and keep it small -or- take a pass if it will keep you up at night. VIX is just under 62, a 12% stretch on the day. Bear in mind everything is still pointed down just now. S2 at SPY $92.60 puts us below the Monday open. Amazing.
o Ted Spread
11:25AM PST: TRIN and VIX improving somewhat. (Yes, I'm in a bit -- will manage more closely than ability to post, however!) And out a short while ago... will reassess near close. S2 was good support the first go. I'd posit buy range for a trade could be anwhere between here (low to mid SPY $93 level) and SPY $90/91 though -- and that's a pretty wide range.
1:05PM PST: And once again in this hyper-speed market, ranges I thought would take days to hit are achieved in hours. VIX high was nearly 69.50.
POST CLOSE: Down another couple points after the close... looks like those that "wanted" a retest will get their wish. However, I did put some back on into the close.
Never Investment Advice
Posted at 11:57 AM