Thursday, November 20, 2008

11.20.08 - Last Crash Lows

We managed to tag yesterday's referenced target break-down zone and [CNBC fact check edit: hit approached] last crash lows from '03 '02 on the SPX after this morning's gap down. The gap was filled on most indices save the S&P 500 (nearly) and Russell 2000 (not by a mile), which is a bit concerning from a breadth perspective. Cumulative tick was negative from the get go, but just right now we are seeing a healthy spike higher and it looks like S1 held. We'll see if this can lead to some modicum of momentum build. Gettelfinger is unbelievable -- God bless him.

9:30AM PST: ...And what do you know, five minutes later we are green across the board on the auto news. Not so sure that's a good thing, but we'll go with it.

9:40AM PST: Did I just hear Deutsche Bank is calling for $40 oil (we've broken $50 today)? Holy Mother of all Crashes Batman. Should we all buy as a matter of personal consumption hedging this go? PS - Resistive volume spike occurring on the strength -- pause or reversal? Usually a reversal unless strong waves of short-covering come into the market. VIX is down to 75, off its opening highs over 80.

10:30AM PST: Struggling for support at the VWAP. I want to say it will hold, but internals stink, so careful here.

11:20AM PST: Back to S1 as Paulson speaks. Should I put back up the "What Hurts More?" poll? "A Paulson Speech" was one of the choices.

11:40AM PST: Third try higher any bar now? Hard call. Goes without saying though -- manage any trades either way very closely. Paulson -- wow -- If I really wanted traffic to this site I'd start writing about the new world order, or something like that. Still struggling to take back S1 -- nope. Will this be the fourth day of lower highs and lows?

12:10PM PST: With respect to the SPX, the problem with relying on the '02 lows, is that systemic concerns, and Financials and Energy (major SPX components) weren't the focus then, and the velocity of this drop has significantly more energy than the last. Time will tell. Meanwhile, the VIX seems to be leveling off here intraday. Of course that could change any millisecond and the downtrend remains intact.

12:25PM PST: We may yet hit the October 2002 SPY lows of $76.72. Half an hour and another dollar to go. I assume CNBC is talking about either the Cash index or the Dow when they keep saying we've already hit the lows earlier today.

12:40PM PST: SPY is about to break S2 at $77.20. Relentless. Smack Down. What's the phrase -- "Where are we going and why are we in this handbasket?" Yikes. SPY $75.72 08 low?

12:58PM PST: CIT@$1.85. Overshoot, or Right Pricing? Man. Volume is very high. VIX over 81? Man. DELL beats on earnings, but revenues under. Thank goodness they don't give guidance... SPY RSI(2)=5.81.

Close: Zero interest rates on short-term bills. Stay tuned for a "mini crash ETF update" later tonight. For the record, here is how the day finished out. Let's hope it's truly and definitively historic.


Anonymous said...

I've been a bear forever warning people about a crash. I feel vindicated, but vindicated like Jor-El on the planet tKrypton (and where on earth could I send my son to anyway?). I do not want the United States to melt down like this. Our generation has been one of the luckiest in U S history. No internecine wars, no demoralizing political scandals, no financial crisis (til now): it's just been all ipods and flat screen tvs. I went 50% long at the end of day today, at ES 750, against the advice of my 5 minute, 60 minute, 120 minute and daily charts. I just don't want the world to end anymore. Gah!!!

Jeff Pietsch, CFA said...

I'm in with you for a swing J. If we melt a bit more, I'll sweat it out after today. Longer term, visibility is still very low.

Anonymous said...

I am sure your chart you post of the day is very informative, but other than the SPY part, I can't figure out what all the lines and dots are. Feel like listing a key?

Jeff Pietsch, CFA said...

I think this has most of it:

I'll make a point of doing a redux to pick up any missing items soon. Best, Jeff