Monday, November 24, 2008

11.24.08 - Pop, Pop, Fizz, Fizz

I've been waiting about three months to use that title. We made it all the way up to R2 (SPY $84.40), so be careful at the mid-day. Holding the gap after the first hour on the Citi news was a sign we might see a follow-through trend day.

Will it be sell the news on the Obama nominations? Or will we get a second round up move? The SPY is already up nearly 6% on the day -- no reason that has to be a cap, but it's obviously high. I still have partial hedges on and will look to trim near the VWAP, and more again at R1, but am likewise lightening up on recent position entries on the long side just about here. Cumulative Tick and AD lines are very strong and the VIX has dropped all the way down to the low 60s.

9:25AM PST: Daily Cumulative Tick has changed slope to the downside. Could just be a dip, but watch it. The President Elect is much more coherent today relative to his first economic briefing, which was a mini-disaster in my opinion.

[INO TV Gold Video Analysis]

9:50AM PST: Tick is repairing itself and we got a small supportive volume spike on the dip down from R2. I'd "like" to see price pull back a bit more before increasing net long exposure. May not get it today.

Brian Shannon has increased his intraday postings during the market turmoil. It's worth checking out his his view on today. Complete day trader though, so be advised he can change his mind very quickly. His recent book is pretty good and I recommend it, check it out on the link to the right ("Technical Analysis").

11:10AM PST: Still bound by the VWAP/R2. Internals remain strong. Take a look at the economic calendar ahead to consider the desirability of continuing to hold hedges, also on the right. I'm generally bullish, but don't forget after just two up days that it's still a tough market.

11:30AM PST: S2 Breakout? I've been covering at the VWAP... starting to feel toppy though... should hold above/ close to SPY $84 if we are going to break up in the last hour here.

12:50PM PST: Glad I covered hedges? Darn toot'n! Talk about a power rally. I'll still play it safe overnight... Whoa... talk about rehedging just in time! Lordy -- That's this market, you get it all in one update, heck, all within the couple few minutes it takes to hit "Publish Post". Still an amazing day.

Close: Hard to follow my thoughts today, sorry about that. At least I attempt to post real-time, not after the fact as many do. To reemphasize, I am bullish intermediate-term (though I hardly think we are out of the woods yet) but am going into tomorrow mostly hedged again.

Timing worked out well today, but I'll pin it on luck as I came into the day fairly hedged as well and cover points were few and far between. Better lucky than smart? The tough thing for long-biased funds will be picking a spot to go all in again. Don't want to miss out, don't want to get creamed. No wonder the market is on "hyper speed". Nothing new there!

PS - Germany officially in a recession. Did you XLF today?

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