Tuesday, November 25, 2008

11.25.08 - Mild Pullback...


...after the tremendous move up. Impressive given the news flow today. So far the daily pivot has held (SPY $84.25), but I'd be careful of any breakdowns below it as the immediate upward energy seems to have run its course and this would be a sell potentially running down to S1 or even the rising 5-Day Moving Average. This would actually be quite healthy as long price held there, of course. For now, TRIN is on the negative side even as Cumulative Tick continues a slow upward march. Those that follow this blog know I look for alignment of indicators before I'll risk any size.

I went net short this morning on the opening gap, but have since trimmed back to partial hedges [Add: Obviously I'll put it all back on if we breakdown]. Many long-biased money managers are looking for the all clear to put money back to work here. It may be a longer-term trap, but if they can get a couple months out of it they will, as they can't afford to have these series of 5% and 10% up days without participating.

10:05AM PST: Testing the Pivot under a declining VWAP; Cumulative Tick slope has turned negative, albeit still positive on an absolute basis for the day. VIX is plus or minus 65.

11:35AM PST: TNX (Ten-Year Treasuries) has dropped precipitously. The Pivot (dotted yellow line) continues to hold for the SPY.

12:15PM PST: And we've caught a bid.

Reading:

o Traderfeed/ Trading with the Tick
o AlphaTrends/ Pattern Recognition A
o AlphaTrends/ Pattern Recognition B

Never Investment Advice

6 comments:

Randy Reis said...

is there a way to be alerted during the day if you have 0updated your posts?

Thx, good stuff

Jeff Pietsch CFA said...

You are very kind. I have been considering Twitter updates. Does anyone else have any suggestions? Shannon now has a live chatroom feature. Maybe I'll check that out. How about I make this a goal for next month, Randy?

Anonymous said...

Hows tricks Jeff??

Looks as though the ole blog is ready for the next step, make a good choice, history will remind you as to whether is was sound or not,,however, you must still move forward.

Mac

Jeff Pietsch CFA said...

Hey Mac,

Tricks are in the money, thank the good Lord. Am also considering a "joint effort" with some of the very good bloggers to the right. Interesting to think about, anyhow. Shoot me an e-mail at jgpietsch @ gmail.com, I have a draft version of my first "product" I'm interesting in getting your feedback on. And happy TG, Jeff

Jeff Pietsch CFA said...

Arghh, can't edit comments... anyway, you'll forgive my grammar and spelling!

Randy Reis said...

Next moth is great, i vote for twitter!