Tuesday, November 25, 2008
...after the tremendous move up. Impressive given the news flow today. So far the daily pivot has held (SPY $84.25), but I'd be careful of any breakdowns below it as the immediate upward energy seems to have run its course and this would be a sell potentially running down to S1 or even the rising 5-Day Moving Average. This would actually be quite healthy as long price held there, of course. For now, TRIN is on the negative side even as Cumulative Tick continues a slow upward march. Those that follow this blog know I look for alignment of indicators before I'll risk any size.
I went net short this morning on the opening gap, but have since trimmed back to partial hedges [Add: Obviously I'll put it all back on if we breakdown]. Many long-biased money managers are looking for the all clear to put money back to work here. It may be a longer-term trap, but if they can get a couple months out of it they will, as they can't afford to have these series of 5% and 10% up days without participating.
10:05AM PST: Testing the Pivot under a declining VWAP; Cumulative Tick slope has turned negative, albeit still positive on an absolute basis for the day. VIX is plus or minus 65.
11:35AM PST: TNX (Ten-Year Treasuries) has dropped precipitously. The Pivot (dotted yellow line) continues to hold for the SPY.
12:15PM PST: And we've caught a bid.
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o AlphaTrends/ Pattern Recognition A
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Posted at 12:34 PM