Sunday, November 30, 2008

Weekly ETF Rewind - Week 48 (11/28/08)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)

Markets built strongly on the prior week's reversal into the Thanksgiving holiday shortened week, leaving the S&P500 (SPY) up +19.1%. The period's biggest sector winners were Financials and Real Estate (XLF +34.8%; IYR +31.9%) on hopes of further credit easing and promises of federal consumer lending facilities (Washington Post - US Moves to Revive Spending). Among the tracked ETFs, only the US Dollar (UUP) registered a slight decline of -2.0%.

Week 49 of 2008 holds a packed economic calendar, as follows:

Analysts will no doubt be closely assessing "Black Friday" retail reports next week (MarketWatch - Sales Up +3%), as well as "The Big Three Automakers" part deux (NY Times - Three Plans). Meanwhile, eight out of 11 sector ETFs are highly overbought on a short-term basis. Also, as strong as this recovery has been, with 20-Day Trend Stability indicators universally in the twenties among equity indices (save Utilities XLU), don't forget that this remains an erratic market. Lastly, Precious Metals (DBP) and Bonds (TLT) are even more over-stretched on an intermediate basis. I hope you enjoyed your extended weekend!

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