Thursday, December 11, 2008

12.11.08 - (XLE > XLF) + Thin Volume = Not Good

Nice downside gap fill on more bad news. However, Financials have been the 'tell' for most of 2008, and I don't like to see them lag so poorly (XLF -2.7%), especially on such light volume. In fact, among the leaders it would appear that the Energy sector is what's taking us higher (XLE +3.00%).

Nonetheless, with the overall resiliency we have been seeing -- it is now easier for me to imagine SPX 950 to 1,000 by mid-January. So to clarify, the big picture odds sheet as I see it: very short-term (hours to days), neutral to bearish; intermediate-term (weeks) slightly to moderately bullish; longer-term, still quite bearish for now. Thoughts?

12:35PM PST - Broke past S2 - next SPY support at $86?

After Hours - Okay, well this after-hours action sure has me inclined to change my view. Estimated support broken after all. My goodness -- we'll see. Retail Sales, PPI and Michigan Sentiment tomorrow. Here's to you Jamie D!

... and that was before the Auto vote debacle... not saying that was necessarily a good idea -- but who said "Tarp II III"? Just say'in ... what a mess...

1 comment:

vivek said...

Seems to be all about the dollar today.

Dollar is collapsing and I suppose thats good for commodities and bad for financials.

Wonder whats moving the dollar today and how this will play out next couple of days.