Tuesday, December 16, 2008

12.16.08 - FOMC Trend Day

It's a strong Fed-trend day, although Cumulative Tick is now showing some signs of toppiness and we've seen strong SPY price resistance just over the $89 mark (spot on R1, infact).

I'll be closing out my overnight long at this point and reassess after "the news" reaction. This will include looking at scaling up on a short bond trade with TBT - but I'd really like the dust to settle on that first and will stick with my small tracking position until then.

Obviously the rate is all a confidence game at this point, and all eyes will be on the statement. Unless it's really out of left field, which is always a possibility, I'd lean towards anticipating a strong rally post-noise. You really have to be careful on getting too framed in your opinion though, these days can wind up going strongly either way and it's often hard to tell the shakeout noise apart from the ultimate trend until after the fact.

Till then it's "Ben be nimble, Ben be quick, don't f-iretr-uck-up our candlestick?" Couldn't help myself, but do be nimble if you plan to play the noise yourself. And, watch that VWAP closely up to the announcement.

Reading: VIX & More on FOMC days; Quantifiable Edges Fed Studies.


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11:50AM PST - Finding some first fade reaction support at SPY $89.30.

12:00PM PST (twitter) - Dollar obviously getting killed even more; UUP -1.53%, GLD +1.85%, TLT +2.1% - but - USO -2.45%. Resistance AGAIN at SPY $90.40.

Chart of the Day:

More Reading: Excellent Traderfeed article on the Tick, which you all know I am a fan of (both the Blog and the Indicator).

Close - PS, don't take my small short scalp trade (twitter) for being bearish on tomorrow/ the days ahead, I'm not -- even though this would be the typical trade. Heck, this is more or less the ultimate Bernanke Put, so we had better hold - at least through year-end! I'm just looking for a small range recapture after the huge +4% day. Also, if memory serves, we haven't seen rates like these since the 1950s... Spring Refi anyone? [Add: Did I write 50's, how about ever?]

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