Tuesday, January 6, 2009

01.06.09 - Sideline Fear


It's bullish to see the market get taken up ahead of news risk, even if it was too much too fast given the results. In spite of the first reaction back down, a quick glance at bond rates suggests continued rotation back into equities on rebalancing and institutional fears of missing out on an upswing.

Since the morning pullback to the daily pivot, we have seen nothing but a series of higher highs and lows, and cumulative tick looks very strong (as it has all day long) as we now pierce R1. Volume looks to be picking up and while the Semi's are bullishly leading (SMH +4.5%), note the second place runner up, Energy (XLE +2.6%) again!

I'm certainly encouraged by what I'm seeing and while SPY $100 looks increasingly in reach, I am not inclined to chase it with anything more than day trades just yet.

[December FOMC Minutes]

The economy is weaker than expected -- let's bid up the market! Adjusted cumulative tick remains very strong going into the final hour.

  • "The information reviewed at the December meeting pointed to a significant contraction in economic activity in the fourth quarter."

  • "Available forward-looking indicators pointed to a significant downturn in manufacturing output in coming months."

  • "Several indexes indicated that house prices continued to decline substantially."

  • "All told, real GDP was expected to fall much more sharply in the first half of 2009 than previously anticipated, before slowly recovering over the remainder of the year as the stimulus from monetary and assumed fiscal policy actions gained traction and the turmoil in the financial system began to recede. Real GDP was projected to decline for 2009 as a whole and to rise at a pace slightly above the rate of potential growth in 2010. Amid the weaker outlook for economic activity over the next year, the unemployment rate was likely to rise significantly into 2010, to a level higher than projected at the time of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting."

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