Friday, January 16, 2009

01.16.09 - Gap Fill Plus

Cumulative Tick peaked into the second hour and price soon followed suit, quickly closing the opening gap. With the AD line also falling and declining volume moving higher on greater total volume, there is no sign of support in any technical quarter. The financial sector is down nearly -6.5% as of this writing [XLF]. This actually leaves the financials below their 2008 November closing lows. S&P500 S1 at SPY $82.7 may provide temporary support [SPY], we'll see.

11:00AM PST - Everything is headed higher for the time being. With the long weekend and lots of news risk still out there (i.e. Barclays et. al.) on this options expiration Friday, I'd still play it safe as we come back up to the confluence of the declining 5 day moving average, VWAP and yesterday's close (say SPY $84.60). Sounds like the three bears, eh? Just something to keep an eye on; the VIX is moving back down.

PIMCO's Bill Gross on damage to bank balance sheets nearing an end [LINK]. Hope you've been following twitter today; started putting some hedges back on. That was a scary retest by the financials today no matter how you look at it. I'll happily lift them next week if all looks clear (per Bill!).

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