Wednesday, January 21, 2009

01.21.09 - Round Trip

The S&P500 [SPY] is struggling to hold onto gains with significant resistance at its Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWAP) after retracing all the way back down to yesterday's lows before a minor recovery. At the low we saw a nice supportive volume spike, which proved a turning point. Since then there has been a pattern of higher lows and highs as the VIX has moved downward and Advancing Volume upward. Meanwhile, Cumulative Tick is relatively flat, albeit negative on the day.

While we remain oversold, it still "feels" like the market could break either way here. I'll be watching price action near the VWAP and daily Pivot very closely ($81.88). The Geithner grilling will probably have to end before we break out of this range one way or the other.

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