Monday, January 19, 2009

Weekly ETF Rewind - Week 3 (01/16/09)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)

While last week removed near-term oversold conditions, this occurred largely through time as opposed to price, with the S&P 500 falling -4.5%, primarily on reemerging fears in the financial complex (PBS - Citi Splits & Bank of America Gets a Bailout). That sector (XLF) finished the week down -16.3%! As has often been the case of late, only Treasuries (TLT) and the Dollar (UUP) came out ahead, up +1.4% and +1.1%, respectively.

Week Four of 2009 features relatively light economic reporting, but earnings will pick up significantly, as follows:

While there is undeniably a great deal of popular optimism ahead of tomorrow's presidential inauguration, I remain reluctant to trade in much size on the long side. In addition to the swearing in, traders will also be monitoring developments in banking here and overseas (Bloomberg - RBS Plummets; Europe Trades Down), as well as the proposed Fiat investment in Chyrsler (Bloomberg - Fiat may take 35%). I hope you are enjoying your long weekend!

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jeff, I love the ETF market rewind; i'd like to create something similar for a group of stocks i follow. I am having a hard time finding info. on Hull exponent and "Omega"; you wouldn't happen to have the tradestation code for these, do you? cheers, Anthony

Jeff Pietsch CFA Esq said...

Anon, I use VBA. I imagine coding Omega in TS would be difficult. When searching the TS forums for Hurst, also try Fractal Dimension or FDimension. You wrote Hull, which is a wonderful parametric moving average, but not included on the Rewind. Best, Jeff