Monday, March 16, 2009

03.16.09 - How High?

How much higher can we move without some modicum of pullback? Longer-term, we have recovered by 50% from the severe decline off of the February Swing-Highs through the March Swing-Lows, 52-Week Highs - Lows are back to normal, and the near-term trend has turned obviously positive. On the other hand, we have snapped back awfully fast and shorter-term indicators are looking quite overbought with the S&P (SPY) RSI-2 over 98.50!

Within the daily time frame, Semi's are struggling and S&P resistance has been shown at R2 ($77.60). However, Cumulative Tick, the Advance-Decline Line and Advancing Volume remain very bullish. So we have a conflict between key levels and momentum. I'll bet on momentum for now, but we are officially overdue at least a small pullback here, and it could turn with very little notice -- watch that trend line!

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1 comment:

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