Friday, March 20, 2009

03.20.09 - Five-Day Moving Averge Penetrated

After eight days above the five-day moving average, the S&P 500 has finally penetrated that line, halting the uptrend. However, at the mid-day, Cumulative Tick and the Advance Decline lines appear to be healing themselves and the falling VWAP has flattened. And this remains a mixed market with the Dow a fraction higher.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPY rechallenge the five-day from the downside later today if we can break convincingly above the VWAP, though I expect that higher level would then provide strong resistance in the absence of a bullish news event, especially going into the weekend. So, most likely trade is more or less sideways to continued moderate move lower, perhaps to SPY $77.50 or so, in my opinion.

12:50 EST Update: Nope... as soon as Bernanke finished we broke down, now coming up on my downside target, which looks to get taken out at this rate.

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