Saturday, April 11, 2009

ETF Rewind - Week 15 (04/09/09)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)

The holiday shortened week brought us a fifth period of gains, first cooling off overbought conditions only to then close higher on the unexpected positive pre-announcement from Wells Fargo (Reuters - Fargo Boosts). In fact, the S&P500 (SPY) posted a large gap higher Thursday to end the week up +1.8%.

Week Sixteen of 2009 features both the opening of the earnings floodgates, and key retail sales, manufacturing and housing reports, as follows:

Over the longer-term horizon, the NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ), Emerging Markets (EEM), and several major Sector ETFs are now within striking distance of their 10-month moving averages, potentially confirming the apparent change in investment tone. Additionally, the VIX (implied options volatility) has now downshifted below 40. Note, however, in as much as we appear to be breaking out of the down-trend channel, how negatively stretched the VIX has become (-12.5%). It will be interesting to see how the broader markets react as these leading indices respond to their first key level tests. Meanwhile -- Enjoy Your Holiday Weekend!

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