Tuesday, June 30, 2009

06.30.09 - 62% Retrace Rejection

The S&P500 came within a hair's breadth of the 62% Fibonacci retrace of the recent 8% price correction and rebound, only to face early congestion and subsequently give up two days of gains on the Consumer Confidence and Jobless reports for a wide bar down nearly $2.00. Price has found some support at that 5-DMA level, and the VIX has also flattened out.

Coincidentally, nary a dent was made in that measure, even at our earlier lows (now about 27). At the mid-day, Cumulative Tick has turned back upward, but is still very net negative and I expect strong successive resistance should we fight back to S1 ($91.85), then the VWAP ($92+).

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