Thursday, July 16, 2009

07.16.09 - Consolidation or Range Trade?

So far we have seen a fairly tight range between the S&P500's pre-session highs and the 500-minute EMA/ Pivot. However, I see the A-D and Cumulative Tick lines are rising steadily as the VIX continues to pullback, leading me to think we may be seeing some consolidation for an afternoon breakout.

The only fact holding me back on that as a firm conclusion is how overbought we are on the daily time frame/ relative positioning. Nice earnings aside, this CIT thing and the poor Philly Fed still weigh in my mind.

(Note: SPY 200-dema as potential resistance today/tomorrow at $93.84. Also, options expiry still looms in volatility land inspite of VIX <25.)

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Also trouble at MGIC