Sunday, July 19, 2009

ETF Rewind - Week 29 (07/17/09)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)

Better than expected earnings and improving economic reports catapulted all of the major indices higher, leaving the NASDAQ100 (QQQQ) and S&P500 (SPY) up a whopping +7.0% and +7.6%, respectively. Higher still were the leading Material (XLB) and Financial (XLF) sectors, each up over +9%. Meanwhile, the prior safe trade Utility (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV) sectors lagged by half. In fact, the only real loser was the bond complex, with Twenty-Year Treasuries (TLT) down -5.2% for the week.

Speaking of which, with longer dated treasuries yielding 30-40 basis points more than last week, the often mean-reverting VIX (<25) (if not more so), it wouldn't be surprising to see a short-term pullback ahead.

Week Thirty of 2009 features a lighter economic calendar, but the earnings floodgates open wider still, as follows:

The Relative Strength Index charts have little meaning this week due to Thursday's corrupt closing ticks. I have therefore instead posted an update to the "Most Analogous Historical Epochs Projection" series. I find the results interesting since the 25-week look-back period contains the entirety of the steepest portions of both the plunge and recovery.

Note that all five analogous projections suggest at least a mild retracement next week followed by a summer trading range bound by SPX 880 and 1,010. Well, it's good eye candy at the very least -- have a terrific weekend!

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2 comments:

Robin Thornton said...

Powershares Biotech & Genome Portfolio ETF (PBE): Any idea what component drove this ETF up 10.39% on Monday, July 20, 2009?

Robin Thornton said...

Powershares Biotech & Genome Portfolio ETF (PBE): What accounts for the +10.39% jump in PBE on Monday, July 20, 2009? I found an answer. It was their 10% holding of Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) that was up an amazing 276.83%.

Sorry to waste your time on a question like this.