Friday, October 30, 2009
With the fifty-day moving average and uptrend channel support breached, it becomes easy to now imagine a retest of the 200-day exponential moving average below. For the SPY, that's all the way down at $99, or another 5% below. On the other hand, this down-cycle has run for some time now, and this could still be just one more overshoot ala October 2nd (although I'm doubting that). Given directional volatility back on the rise, traders will just have to take it day-by-day, as usual.