Friday, January 15, 2010

01.15.10 - Internals Awful on Haunting JPM Missive

Here we go again with some OPEX volatility thrown into the mix.  At the mid-day, SPY price is plumbing the depths of its two week range that looked so close to breaking out just yesterday afternoon.  However, I found this morning's JP Morgan comments rather haunting in the sense that I think they will cast a pall over the market for a while here.  First downside target is the twenty-day moving average near  SPY $112.80, though we are certainly overdue a visit to the 50-day further along towards $111.20.  Price is breaking down once more as I post this in true trend-day fashion.  I'd be careful picking bottoms today.

Never Investment Advice


yourfinancialblogger said...

I have to agree with your analysis about the SPY. The next meaningful bounce in my opinion will be at $112-$112.50


jgpietsch said...

Well, you don't "have too", but thanks for the comment and good luck on your new blog. JP ;-)

heywally said...

FWIW, I personally 'feel' that we don't have enough of a 'bad' catalyst to kick off significant downside in the overall market in the very short term though I am being extra cautious until GOOG and AAPLY report, along with the rest of the earnings. I did dump my meager JPM long pre-market and 'thought about' shorting it at the open for a day trade. It should be dead money for a while.

I unfortunately abandoned my ES short when the market didn't respond with significant weakness in the first 15 mins on Friday but at least I got out of the way. Am working on short term strategies to day trade the first hour of the market and longer term strategies, depending on how the market reacts when it crosses above/below the 50-day MA.

jgpietsch said...

Hey Wally, sure I didn't mean to imply that I believe this is the start of some sort of a major slide. Maybe a small shot across the bow to keep alert, though.

heywally said...

Jeff - yes, and I will wait for price to tell me about any significant trend change. I can see some sell the market downside as the significant earnings get reported but if companies like GOOG and AAPL offer up really good guidance, it's going to take significant macro-economic news to knock the legs out.

Thanks for your work