Thursday, January 21, 2010

01.21.10 - SPY Fast Break to 50-DMA

Price action fell to pieces soon after an opening reject of the intra-day 5-DMA, leaving the SPY near its second indicated potential support level at its 50-DMA of about $111.65 (the first for ETFR subs was yesterday's lows).  Thus far that has proven good support, although internals have a lot of damage to repair if we are to see a late-day comeback like yesterday.  Right now I'm just not seeing that and XLF is down over 3% on the White House commentary.

I expect many go-long signals to begin triggering here.  Just be advised part of the reason this will happen is the preternatural narrow range we are coming out of.  Legging in may well be the best way to establish exposure on this particular fast break.  I'd also be remiss not to note that this is some very high volume distribution we are seeing, and that the VIX breakout hardly looks done.  Next SPY support looks to be in the mid-$110 range should we continue to march lower.  Lastly, an "official" 10% correction would take us all the way down under our 200-DMA.  Not suggesting that will happen, just making note.

Speaking of which, the FXI/ the Xinhua China 25, actually has broken its 200-day moving average on last night's hot inflation readings.

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