Friday, February 19, 2010

02.19.10 - Feels Like "Miracle on Ice"

By the morning session the worst of the Fed window reaction had been absorbed and within the first half hour the S&P was bought off its daily pivot. Reminds me of the old movie "Miracle on Ice" based on the USA hockey win over the Soviet Union in 1980 for you Olympics buffs.

But, not really a total surprise given how strong momentum has been -- is it? (Feels just like early November.) That's one reason I am testing this new end-of-day SPY price indicator. It attempts to quantify e.o.d. price based on various "sentiment" spreads and their historical relation to daily price changes. It should be interesting to watch.

As of the mid-day, this indicator is suggesting we are nearly at "fair value". That said, many elements have fallen into place to call this a trend day. My contrarian/ larger concerns lie in the daily bars, which are showing a slowing of the upward momentum and highly overbought short-term readings.  Lastly, given last night's news and OpEx, volume is lighter than I would have expected.  Oh, and did you see the VIX today... < 20.

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