Thursday, July 29, 2010

The End of Market Rewind - On Airs, Waters & Places

Well, it's not quite that dramatic....  However, after three years and well over a kilobyte of posts here (1,026 to be exact), it's time to raise our foundation and move the Rewind to greener pastures over at a new address:  ETF Prophet!

I remember when I started Market Rewind not long before "the big bang" -- Bill a.k.a. NoDooDahs and Traderfeed were my aspirational bloggers!  They are now both gone, and this old-school blog is starting to look quite 1.0 as well in spite of my periodic maintenance efforts.

Mostly though, financial blogging is a bit of lonely enterprise, and it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain a desired standard of excellence as a solo shop.  Therefore, I have joined forces to collaborate with seven other top-notch active traders who have my utmost respect for a combined effort. 

Several of the names you will recognize, others are new to the blog-o-sphere, but all are top-rate high performance traders:

Yes, a small play on words, but mostly a locale where we hope to raise the bar while having fun and breaking down some of the vertical barriers between disciplines and authors.

Those of you who visit this site frequently know it is a veritable treasure trove of studies and commentary (see "The Vault"), and I will thus keep it posted here for whatever that is worth.  Meanwhile, come join us, won't you!? [Bookmark This Site]
"Life is short, [the] art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult."~ Hippocrates
Last but not least, thank you all for your kind support these past several years!

Cheers, Mrkt_Rwnd

07.29.10 - Overdue Technical Pullback Arrives

Here it is, two or three days off schedule, but here nevertheless.  Semi's have really led this move.  I'm watching the SPY closely for indicated support in the $109 range right here near S2 with a possible higher low put in and with the five-day moving average still rising.  However, I'd like to see internals confirm, particularly cumulative tick.  Whether this is bought between here and the high $108 range will tell us alot about the recent rally effort.  Obviously GDP looms large tomorrow. 

This will be my last substantive post at Market Rewind.  Stay tuned later in the day for an elaboration.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

All Good Things Must Come to an End?

And with every closed door, an open window... to be continued....

07.28.10 - Semi's Lead Sell Pressure

The market is "finally" experiencing mild sell pressure after it's recent explosive move higher.  While Semi's (SMH) have been leading the way down and I'll be keeping a close eye on those, overall internals are mixed with positive cumulative tick set against marginally higher down volume and negative advancers - decliners.  Therefore, I am not expecting a major breakdown at this time.  Certainly jobless claims and GDP will play strongly going into the end of the week and there may be some nervousness going into those after two negative economic reports earlier in the week.

What is that below?  Hmmm.....  Re-publishers, please contact me about Market Rewind RSS feed going forward.  Yes, this is a Mary had a little lamb test!  Are you reading?

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

07.27.10 - Sitting on the 200-Day Moving Average

Up and Down Volume are well matched and, with the easy a.m. fade over, there is no clear trend going into the afternoon session.  However, as overbought as we are on the daily time frame, I am on guard for prospective downside even as price is holding up admirably after several consecutive accumulation days.

Monday, July 26, 2010

07.26.10 - Positive Internals Getting Stretched

Internals are very strong this follow-through Monday, although we are seeing initial resistance at R1 and daily time-frame indicators are in official overbought territory even as the 200-dma has proven a strong magnet and intermediate signals are beginning to align to the long-side.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

ETF Rewind - Week 29 (7/23/10)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary)

Equities rebounded last week, breaking down-channel resistance and registering higher lows.  In fact, the S&P 500 (SPY) managed to break above its fifty-day moving average and came within a hair of going positive relative to its ten-month moving average, finishing  higher by +3.5% on the week.  The major indices are slightly overbought going into the final week of July, but only mildly so and with the European Bank "Stress-Tests" out of the way and a predominance of upside earnings surprises, I'd suppose at least even odds that markets can continue to repair the last couple months' damage.

Week Thirty of 2010 features a busier economic reporting calendar including Housing, Beige Book and Gross Domestic Product estimates:
I hope you are having a terrific weekend!

If you are interested in a significantly more thorough version of this weekly summary, consider taking a look at Market Rewind's nightly ETF Rewind Pro service. In addition to coverage of over 200 ETFs across twelve major asset classes, you will find three model portfolios, daily market signals and commentary, pairs trading, rotation modeling, and various powerful portfolio management tools.

Never Investment Advice: Prior Weekly Summaries: ETF Rotation Models

Friday, July 23, 2010

Friday Fun - What Should Never Be

07.23.10 - Post CEBS Struggle Above Pivot

Markets are struggling to digest yesterday's outsized gains after the European Bank Stress Test release, which in itself was a bit of a non-event.  At this point, internals continue to suggest more sideways trade into the pm session, although I'd like to see the NASDAQ begin to hold its ground more firmly and soon.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

07.22.10 - Power Tick

As is often the case, the outsized gap higher held and ran on better than expected Euro-zone and earnings reports. Volume is slightly better than yesterday and internals suggest price should hold or improve on VWAP. However, I will note that next resistance is just above at the 200-dema near SPY $110.  Meanwhile, it's good to see price back above its 50-dsma -- IF that can flatten out in the days ahead, bulls will no doubt take heart.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

07.21.10 - Consolidation Above 5-DMA

It's good to be back, still getting in touch with the rhythm of the market, but don't see any real surprises. Today's gap tested the flattening five-day moving average and held, but internals are really running sideways and price is now hanging around its VWAP ahead of Uncle Ben.

Monday, July 12, 2010

Mkt_Rwnd On Summer Break (July 12-20)

Trade/ Invest Like Champions
You Captains of Industry!



June 2010 Rewind - June Swoon

June's economic data provided little respite for those doubting the global slowing theory.  The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices again finished lower for the month by -5.39%, -3.58%, and -6.11%, respectively.

The holiday-shortened first week of July provided a solid reversal, however, and traders will be undoubtedly be keenly watching each earnings report for signs of where markets go from here.  Any early mixed results are almost certain to keep volatility high unless a series of strong cross-sector beats emerges.

Sentiment: Negative
Volatility: Moderate (VIX 23-37)
Direction: Highly Negative




The Style-Box was calculated using the following PowerShares™ ETFs: Small-Growth (PWT), Small-Value (PWY), Mid-Growth (PWJ), Mid-Value (PWP), Large-Growth (PWB), and Large-Value (PWV). The Sector-Ribbon was calculated using the following Select Sector SPDR™ ETFs: Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Energy (XLE), Staples (XLP), Discretionary (XLY), Financials (XLF), Technology (XLK), and Healthcare (XLV). The Standard & Poors 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100 may be traded through ETF proxies, including the SPY or IVV, DIA and QQQQ, respectively.

ETF Rewind - Week 27 (7/9/10)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary)

The market finally got its reversal, repairing most of the prior week's damage, leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) higher by +5.1% for the best weekly performance of the year.  However, we are now just as short-term overbought as we were recently oversold, and only earnings will tell where we go from here.

Week Twenty-Eight of 2010 presents the following reporting calendars featuring retail sales, the FOMC minutes, and the start of Q2 earnings:
Lastly, in accordance with a more positive intermediate-term outlook, I noted a couple of more encouraging historical analogues popping up on our weekly simile analysis, provided hereI will be on vacation next week -- have a good one!

If you are interested in a significantly more thorough version of this weekly summary, consider taking a look at Market Rewind's nightly ETF Rewind Pro service. In addition to coverage of over 200 ETFs across twelve major asset classes, you will find three model portfolios, daily market signals and commentary, pairs trading, rotation modeling, and various powerful portfolio management tools.

Never Investment Advice: Prior Weekly Summaries: ETF Rotation Models

Friday, July 9, 2010

Aggregate M & Z Indicators Now Part of ETF Rewind!

CSS Analytic's Aggregate M & Z indicators, two powerful multi-period cross-trend/ reversion indicators, are now incorporated into our nightly reports for all of ETF Rewind's 200-plus core index tracking list. Indeed, the summed reading of how many are on a buy or sell levels across category lists may be a powerful analysis in its own right.

Here are links explaining more about the indicators and their construction:

Agg-M - Trade With The Trend Using AggM as a Filter
Agg-Z - Another Composite Trend/Mean Reversion Indicator

If you like the looks of those equity curves, you really owe it to yourself to explore David Varadi's innovative work further at his DV Indicators site*.

Friday Fun - Walking on the Moon

07.09.10 - Near 20-DMA Tag

The SPY came very close to tagging its falling twenty-day moving average this morning. Internals are positive and, short of a late pre-weekend bid lift, I am looking for a modestly positive afternoon session. Although we are near-term overbought, intermediate indicators are beginning to trigger buy signals. These cross-currents could make for a most interesting kick-off to earnings season next week coming off of a prospective corrective bottom.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

07.08.10 - Digesting the Move

The market is trading in mixed fashion depending on the index, but internals are generally healthy and it's good to see yesterday's gains being evenly digested.  Looking ahead, progressive resistance on the SPY should start near the twenty-day moving average of $107.75, up through 50/200-day moving average convergence zone in the $110 to $111 area.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

07.07.10 - Trend Day

A day after the Russell tagged official "bear market" correction levels, we are seeing a nice bounce with internals strongly sloped to the upside. Although the NASDAQ 100 is running just under its "R1" level, breadth is strong enough that we should have a good chance of breaking through. It's good to see the five-day moving averages flattening out.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

07.06.10 - Tick Trending Down against Gap

You can see how the downward sloping dotted magenta five-day moving averages acted as significant technical resistance today, precipitating all manner of hedging and profit taking at the mid-day, no doubt.  Relative volume is building, we'll see if it can stop the fall at its cessation point going into the afternoon (solid white).

Monday, July 5, 2010

ETF Rewind - Week 26 (7/2/10)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary)

After another week of serious downdraft leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) lower by another -5.3% on the week and nearly -4% in a month, the major US indices are now extremely oversold with the NASDAQ 100 down a record ten consecutive sessions. Going into the holiday shortened week, Week Twenty-Seven of 2010 likewise presents a more than proportionately light reporting calendar:
I hope you have a terrific long weekend!

If you are interested in a significantly more thorough version of this weekly summary, consider taking a look at Market Rewind's nightly ETF Rewind Pro service. In addition to coverage of over 200 ETFs across twelve major asset classes, you will find three model portfolios, daily market signals and commentary, pairs trading, rotation modeling, and various powerful portfolio management tools.

Never Investment Advice: Prior Weekly Summaries: ETF Rotation Models

Friday, July 2, 2010

Friday Fun - The Final Countdown

07.02.10 - Record Down Days

Looks like some of the major indices are set up for record setting consecutive down days.  SPY price is just above S1/ yesterday's lows, but internals are quite negative going into the long weekend at this point.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

07.01.10 - Nauseating Reversal

Was that enough for now? Volume is certainly heavy enough, we are at the half and there must be institutions with fixed allocation parameters that are looking at forced rebalancing here, if not soon. The VIX tagged 37.5 before the reversal just above yesterday's indicated long-term Fib support. If this can catch I suspect it may run a while if jobs doesn't surprise too badly to the downside -- though I don't mean to imply we are out of the woods here by any means.